World Series Game 1 Predictions: Rays vs. Brewers Picks and Best Bets

The Tampa Bay Rays and Milwaukee Brewers play Game 1 of the 2026 World Series on Friday night at American Family Field in Milwaukee. First pitch is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET, and it can be viewed or streamed on FOX.

For the first time since 1980 we get two organizations playing each other for their first-ever World Series championship. The city of Milwaukee has celebrated a World Series title before, but that was in 1957 when the Milwaukee Braves topped the New York Yankees.

The Brewers have been to the World Series once before, representing the American League, back in 1982, and Milwaukee lost in seven games to the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Rays have appeared in two previous World Series, falling to the Philadelphia Phillies in five games in 2008, while losing in “The Bubble” in Arlington, Texas in six games against the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2020 during the COVID-19 global pandemic.

Tampa Bay is expected to use RHP Drew Rasmussen in Game 1, although it hasn’t made anything official. Rasmussen was acquired from the Brewers for SS Willy Adames, while the teams also exchanged relief pitchers no longer with either organization. So, that’s an added storyline.

Milwaukee is expected to use fireballer RHP Jacob Misiorowski (16-5, 1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP), the Major League leader in strikeouts (252), ERA and WHIP during the regular season. Misiorowski hasn’t been nearly as dominant in the postseason, going 0-0 with a 3.24 ERA across two starts, with four walks and 11 K in eight innings against the San Diego Padres in the NLDS, and Game 1 of the NLCS against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Rays posted three consecutive victories in the ALCS against the Cleveland Guardians, allowing three or fewer runs in each of the final five games of that series, won in six games. The Under has a slight 3-2 edge in the past five games, as Tampa Bay’s offense is averaging 5.7 RPG in the past three outings.

The Brewers swept the high-priced Dodgers, while scoring six or more runs in each of the final three games of the series. The only game they failed to reach the mark was a 2-1 win in Game 1 with Misiorowski on the mound. Milwaukee is 7-1 in eight postseason games, and 4-0 at home, with the Under going 2-1-1 in those four games at American Family Field.

The Rays are 3-1 in four road playoff games, while the Under is 2-1-1 in those four contests. In those four outings, Tampa Bay has allowed just 10 runs, or 2.5 runs per game.

With a Rasmussen vs. Misiorowski pitching matchup, expect runs to be at a premium. The sportsbooks are certainly expecting that. Most shops have the total at a flat 6, although Bet365 and FanDuel are offering UNDER 6.5 (-130) with a little more juice.

In addition, we’ll go UNDER 3 RUNS - FIRST 5 INNINGS (-105), while leaning RAYS +1.5 (-164) on the run line in a low-scoring, close series opener.